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Tuesday, January 3, 2012

Predictions from a Historian


One of our favorite tag lines here has always been George Santayana's oft-quoted, "those who cannot remember the past, are condemned to repeat it."  Yet, the older we get, the more we realize how easily people forget the past, (if they ever really understood it all) and so, how often history repeats itself.  This is why there are repeating patterns to all of human history.  The details might be different, but the underlying motives are no less different now than they were at any another point in history--success; glory; honor; ego.  That said, one of the very reasons we who study history look to our past, is so that we might be better able to glimpse our future. 

We now find ourselves at the beginning of a new year, many of us looking out at its prospects with a heavy heart.  Generally, and globally speaking, those prospects for a happy and prosperous 2012 do not bode well, and certainly no better than the history of 2011 would inform us:  currently, Europe is on the verge of an economic meltdown; economically significant countries in Europe, as well as the United States are mired in such increasing debt as to put them on the verge of veritable bankruptcy; wars and the threat of more wars continue in the middle east; and politicians have become ever more disconnected to the plight of the average citizen, while they grow ever wealthier in the process.  Seriously--does anyone really think 2012 will be any better than 2011?

Though of course, no one can predict the future with any accuracy, given how human history tends to repeat patterns, and given the situation we all find ourselves in, after a fairly bleak 2011, we can nonetheless prognosticate a few things.

1. The war against Iran (which we have already intimated is covertly underway) will escalate, and likely become more visible.  The circumstances that will signal its official commencement is anyone's guess, but rest assured that whatever that particular event may be, all participants will blame the other side for initiating hostilities.

2. Crude oil will likely reach $200 per barrel.  Because of the escalating tensions in the middle East, average gasoline prices in the U.S. will increase to at least $5.00 per gallon.

3. The U.S. Presidential election will be, for most people, and once again, a choice between the lesser of two evils.  Seems the only Republican candidate who has any significant support is Dr. Ron Paul, but no one seems to think he can win, and the Republican establishment is sure to make sure he won't.  Hence, the Republican electorate will only nominate someone they think can beat Barack Obama.

4. Whether the economy gets better or worse, the Federal Reserve will print more money.  As the dollar is continually devalued, retail prices for goods and services will continue to increase, as "Helicopter Ben" Bernanke follows through on the anti-deflation doctrine he established before being confirmed as the U.S. Fed Head.

5. Civil liberties in the United States will continue to erode through continued Congressional legislation geared to combat the presumedly perpetual "war on terror".  Nations must always have an enemy, and even if the enemy is tactic, it serves the powers-that-be to maintain that enemy in order to strengthen their power.  Just read Orwell's Nineteen Eighty-Four.

Never have we in this office hoped more that we were wrong in our prognostications.  And, perhaps, we go out on a limb just in making them.  We certainly want not to extinguish all hope for a better year.  But, in light of the current events now facing us, and in light of the history of western thinking, we consider it more beneficial to inform the public of impending maladies, than to elicit a false sense of hope through an irrational positivity.

Whatever happens, we nonetheless harbor the wish that everyone can make the best of it, and have a truly prosperous new year.