Is War against Iran Inevitable?

The Obama administration, in apparent concert with British and Canadian authorities, issued a statement yesterday, condemning Iran's nuclear development activities, and announcing a new round of sanctions.  "As long as Iran continues down this dangerous path, the United States will continue to find ways, both in concert with our partners and through our own actions to isolate and increase the pressure upon the Iranian regime," the statement said.

The concert of statements follow a report issued earlier this month by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), that asserts that Iran is developing nuclear weapons--that they are building hi-tech precision detonators essential for a nuclear device, and that they are devloping a uranium core for a nuclear warhead.

None of this is really unexpected, since the west has long suspected Iran of secretly attempting to develop nuclear weapons, but the signs of an escalating conflict grow with each passing day.  Israel has already suggested that "the time has come" to deal with Iran, and has not ruled out the use of its own military forces in the process.  Yesterday, the United Kingdom cut ties with all Iranian banks, and Canada banned the export to Iran of all goods used in the petrochemical, oil and gas industries.  The Russians claim that the IAEA is biased, and had the "set goal to deliver a guilty verdict."  Iran itself claims that the report is politically motivated, and based on false evidence cooked up by American intelligence services.  Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called the head of the IAEA a "pawn of the U.S."

The whole affair, so far, bears a remarkable resemblance to the events that led up to the U.S. invasion of Iraq in 2003, which leads many of us who remember clearly those events to wonder if some kind of war with Iran is inevitable.  We shall see.  In the meantime, we shall keep a close watch.

The Power of the Pretext

When one peruses the history of mankind, it is difficult not to notice certain patterns--how, in the rise and fall of civilizations, as historian Carroll Quigley noted, there are periods of migration, expansion, and decline; how a civilization's expansion is directly proportional to its economy and upward social mobility; and how wars between civilizations begin, and how they are terminated either through conquest or truce.

Those of us who studied those patterns suspected well enough back in 2002, that the persistent claims by both the Bush administration and Tony Blair's Labour government that Iraq was in possession of weapons of mass destruction ("WMDs"), whether true or false,  would inevitably lead to military action in Iraq.  Those suspicions were confirmed when the Bush administration mobilized troops the region, while claiming that such mobilization was merely a precautionary measure, should Iraq's government at the time prove resistant to U.N. efforts to search for the WMDs. 

Few seem to remember that no WMDs were found, but most do remember the invasion itself, and in all likelihood consider the justification for that invasion and "regime change" to be simply the removal of Saddam Hussein.  This is because of what we may call the Pattern of the Pretext, especially in regards to empire civilizations going to war--that Iraq was suspected of harboring WMDs was merely the pretext for invading, occupying, and establishing a new government in Iraq.

We note this pattern, because now the Obama administration has a pretext of its own in regards to Iran--on Tuesday last, the administration claimed that an Iranian plot to assassinate Saudi ambassador to the United States Adel Al-Jubier was foiled by FBI and DEA agents.  Assuming that story is indeed true, while we might give credit to the FBI and DEA, the administration went farther, and took sudden steps to ensure not only that the entire world was aware of the plot, but that it should unite in at least isolating Iran through sanctions.  Deja vu--back in 2002, the Bush administration went to the United Natons with supposedly incontrovertible evidence of WMDs in Iraq, determined to convince the world that those WMDs could be used in terrorist plots.

Say and think what you will about Iran.  Believe what you will about Iran and nuclear capablities and terrorism.  We do not write this post to disclaim such.  One may even speculate that banging the war drums provides for a nice diversion from the Occupation protests.  But know this:  the war drums are most certainly being banged, and, as with the war drums that have been banged before, they are being banged with the drumsticks of the pretext.

Sunday Summary

Few people who were alive back then will ever forget where they were ten years ago today, when they heard about the 9/11 tragedy.  This author was just walking into a college political science class, when he noticed the classroom television on, a live report of the burning world trade center, and the words, written on the chalkboard next the television, "Pearl Harbor II".

Most of the historical facts of the event are fairly clear after ten years:  On the morning of September 11, 2001, 19 Islamist militants coordinated the hijacking of four passenger jets taking flight from several airports on the east coast, with the intention of flying them into several economically and politically significant buildings.  Two of those planes were each flown into a tower of the World Trade Center; another smashed into the Pentagon in Arlington, VA; and the fourth crashed into a Pennsylvania field, after passengers attempted to take control from the hijackers before they could reach their intended target.  Both towers of the WTC collapsed, significant damage was sustained by the Pentagon, and after all was said and done, nearly 3,000 people perished.

Despite an investigation and report by a congressionally legislated commission, some of the other facts of 9/11 remain murky, at best.  A significant number of individuals and groups, both as witnesses and researchers of the tragedy, assert that the explanations of the events offered by U.S. government, the 9/11 Commission, and the mainstream media, are inconsistent to a significant degree, which suggests either a cover-up of the authentic causes, or complicity by, if not the explicit responsibility of, those in power at the time.  These individuals and groups have, for the past several years, called for a new investigation of the events.

Though all the facts may never be known, or at least publicized, what is most clear is that 9/11 changed daily life, as we knew it in the United States, if not the world, and in some ways that are not insignificant.  Most significant, is western civilization's perception and fear of "terrorism", put in quotes here, as the term itself has become so politically and emotionally charged, as to lose a clear definition.  Ostensibly, 9/11 was an act of "terrorism" as most of us understand the term, today, and because of it's tragic nature, security officials go to extreme lengths, if not, at times, pushing, if not exceeding their constitutional authority, in order to ensure that anything like that never happens again.  Hence, if we're not fearful of another "terrorist" attack, we are fearful of being investigated, interrogated, or searched as a possible "terrorist" ourselves.

To be sure, and from a historical perspective, living in a state of fear is not really new to the American populace.  For that matter, it is nothing new to civilization, itself.  For a time, the Romans lived in fear of the Carthaginians; Europeans lived in fear of the "Black Death" of the Plague; during WWII, British citizens lived in fear of being bombed by the German Luftwaffe, while Americans citizens lived in fear of another attack by the Japanese Navy; after WWII, pretty much the entire western world lived in fear of communism.  In fact, historically, civilizations have most often lived in fear of something.  What changed on 9/11 was the object that fear, namely, "terrorism", and although acts of "terrorism" were certainly nothing new ten years ago, for the first time, it had a direct and lasting impact upon a significant number of American people.

Such impact is the reason why many of us are likely to take time today to reflect upon the horrific events of this date, ten years ago, and to remember the lives we knew back then, that were suddenly and forever lost to us.